The reference house for the AI industry

Documenting fifteen thousand AI companies from the inside gives you a particular vantage point: you see how fast the seasons turn. We lived through the AI winter, the long freeze when funding collapsed and serious people were embarrassed to say the words out loud. We are now in a summer of extraordinary capability and capital. Our concern is not another winter. It is that this summer is overheating, accelerating faster than anyone's ability to understand, measure, or govern what is being built.

So we did what a reference house does: we tried to measure it. The P³ Index, Possibility, Probability, Predictability, and the clock it drives are our attempt to give AI's most consequential risk an honest, revisable number, and to record where the people building it actually stand. It is risk communication in the tradition of the Doomsday Clock, published so that anyone can check the reasoning and disagree with it.

Our own editorial assessment, and the sourced positions of the field's leading voices, are set out on the Expert Panel. As with everything we publish, the reading is revisable, and the hands can move back.